Pistorius: The Charges And Possible Sentences

If the judge convicts Oscar Pistorius of the pre-meditated murder of his girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp, he faces a lifetime in jail with no possibility of parole for 25 years.

But the judge can give a reduced sentence if she finds "substantial or compelling evidence".

State prosecutors have insisted that the shooting involved a level of planning in that the runner had time to arm himself, disable the gun's safety catch, walk down the bedroom corridor towards the bathroom and fire four times into the toilet cubicle - a period in which he had time to consider what he was doing and the effects of his actions.

If Judge Thokozile Masipa finds no evidence of premeditation, she could consider finding him guilty of a legally less serious form of murder: that he fired the shots intending to kill, but did not plan it.

The prosecution has argued that even if he didn't plan it, he believed there was an intruder in the toilet cubicle and fired his gun intending to kill whoever was behind the door - making him guilty of murder.

If the judge agrees, the athlete faces a minimum mandatory jail sentence of 15 years in prison - which is, again, unless the defence provides "substantial and compelling" reasons to deviate from the prescribed sentence.

This does give Judge Masipa the option of finding Oscar Pistorius guilty of murder but free to impose an alternative to jail, such as correctional supervision or a suspended sentence.

But the judge may find the state has not proved beyond a reasonable doubt that the runner intended to kill. If so, she cannot convict on murder but may consider a verdict of culpable homicide - known as manslaughter in other countries.

His trial has attracted considerable media attention from around the world

This is where the court rejects the state's contention that the accused intended to kill, but finds him guilty of killing through negligence.

The prosecution has argued that Oscar Pistorius was grossly negligent, as no reasonable person would have fired four times through a door after hearing a noise, especially without ascertaining who was behind the door first.

There is no minimum sentence for culpable homicide in South African law, which allows the judge to look at options including a jail sentence, a suspended jail sentence, correctional supervision and even a financial penalty - or a combination of several of those options.

The double amputee arrives for closing arguments in Pretoria last month

But even if the athlete is acquitted on the murder charge, he still faces the possibility of a jail sentence on the other three charges.

The two charges of illegally discharging a firearm in a public place carry a maximum sentence of five years in jail each if he is found guilty, but no minimum sentence.

Meanwhile, the final charge of illegally possessing ammunition carries a maximum sentence of 15 years, but again there is no minimum sentence.

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Oscar Pistorius Faces Judgement Day In Trial

M'Lady: The Trial Judge Who Rose From Nothing

Updated: 4:52am UK, Thursday 11 September 2014

By Alex Crawford, Special Correspondent, in Pretoria

The fate of Oscar Pistorius lies in the palm of one Thokozile Masipa, a woman who grew up in poverty but rose to become only the second black female to be appointed a judge in South Africa.

From day one of the trial, the irony of this elderly black woman standing in judgement over a rich, privileged young white man cannot have been lost in a country with a racial history like South Africa.

The 66-year-old grew up under the apartheid system in Soweto - the most well-known disadvantaged township of them all at the time. 

She would have had to obtain permission from her white employers to travel to certain areas. She would have had to show her passbook when asked to by the police, which would have been often.

She would have been confined to all-black schools with deliberately limited opportunities and she would not have been allowed to vote.

Judge Masipa would have been 29 years old when a peaceful march by thousands of students in Soweto was broken up after police fired tear gas and live bullets. The Soweto uprisings as they became known led to similar protests across South Africa.

These events would have shaped Thokozile Matilda Masipa, who was the eldest of ten siblings.

She already had two main careers and had two young children by the time she started studying law in her forties - achievements which would be considered exceptional and remarkable for a white woman in South Africa (or anywhere), but were utterly unheard of for a black woman then.

Although she worked at a string of odd jobs beforehand, including as a nursing assistant and a tea lady, she sought largely vocational careers where her friends say she hoped to change the unequal South African landscape she was born into.

She became first a social worker and then a newspaper reporter, at one stage working as a crime reporter. It was a tough time to be a journalist.

Once she spent a night in the cells having been arrested for protesting at the unfair detention of some of her male journalist colleagues.

During her time as Womans Editor of The Post, she broke with tradition and wrote about female empowerment and the victims of police brutality rather than cooking recipes and fashion.

It seems she has been breaking with tradition ever since.

She graduated from law school in 1990, the same year that Nelson Mandela was freed from prison and eight years later became only the second black woman judge appointed to the High Court.

The woman known as "Tilly" to her longtime friends is known to be a quiet, diligent, conscientious, reserved person.

Her boss for 14 years is the former Judge President, Bernard Ngoepe, who remembers her being quick to help, uncomplaining and absolutely passionate about justice.

He was part of the process which saw her appointed judge.

He said: "I felt her past experiences in social work and journalism meant she had a certain empathy, a real feeling for the people she was dealing with. I liked that in her."

And what about being at the centre of South African legal history?

The Oscar Pistorius trial is the first to be broadcast live in South Africa - and around the world.

Mr Ngoepe said: "I rang and asked her whether I should do this interview with you.

"And you know what she said? She said it's neither here nor there. She said she hasn't read any of the newspapers or followed events on the television during this trial so it's neither here nor there.

"I don't think it's made any difference to her that it's been broadcast live."

In one rare interview a few years ago, Judge Masipa admitted her background affected the way she viewed the mainly poor, mainly young men who came before her in court.

She said: "I understand them because they are from the same place I come from. I wouldn't say I am too lenient but I am more understanding."

Certainly judging from at least one of her decisions, she is anything but lenient. She once sentenced a serial rapist to 252 years in jail for leaving his victims traumatised for life.

But her views on the six-month-long Pistorius murder trial have been difficult to decipher.

She has said little, intervened only when absolutely necessary and astonished many of the watching media by her ability to maintain a poker-face through some of the most dramatic moments of the 41 court days.

She has shown she is no pushover - admonishing the media, the public, the two advocates and publicly humiliating the defence's legal assistant when his mobile phone inadvertently went off.

"He apologises, m'lady," defence lawyer Barry Roux said.

"Well he can stand up and apologise himself," retorted the indomitable Judge Masipa. And he did.

Over the next two days, the inscrutable m'lady will take us through her thinking, her assessments, who she believes and who she doubts - and at the end of that, she will finally conclude whether Oscar Pistorius committed murder or not when he shot his girlfriend four times through the toilet door.

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Bribes Of Cash And Guns To Tackle IS Jihadis

Washington is on the move.

From dither to decision to deliberation and even direction, it's been a frustrating process to behold.

But it may, in the end, provide a map through the minefield of the Middle East that is at least navigable.

Past failures are no excuse for inaction.

The disaster of the invasion of Iraq, and the debacle of Afghanistan, have meant that Western public opinion is not disposed for more adventures in the Muslim world.

John Kerry will underline the IS threat on a trip to the Middle East

Politicians have taken refuge from addressing whether Islamic State is the threat they claim it is using the backward argument that there's no public support for action.

Now Barack Obama has been briefing his nation via the media, Congress, and in a landmark speech, of the need to take action to stop the IS spread.

His Secretary of State John Kerry is simultaneously en route to the Middle East with a very simple message: "The IS is a much bigger threat to you all than it is to us - so you'll be expected to do the heavy lifting here."

That doesn't just mean 'boots on the ground'.

Of course the US will be looking at a Yemen or Libyan-type operation in which local or regional forces provide troops, while allies do the bombing from a safe height.

The US has been carrying out airstrikes in support of Iraqi forces

But the campaign against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been slow and is far from over - mainly because while AQAP has lost many leaders it has not lost the political struggle.

Similarly, Mr Kerry's trip to Saudi Arabia, where he will meet with his hosts, Jordan, Egypt, the Lebanon and six Gulf states, will focus on the military option and a much more complex political strategy to undermine IS in the Sunni world.

Jordan is ahead of the game on this, having organised a regional gathering of Sunni tribal leaders a few weeks back.

Key will be the role of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which have been rivals for Sunni dominance.

Qatar has favoured the radical non-violence of the Muslim Brotherhood, while all other regional powers and the Gulf States see the Brotherhood as a threat to their autocracies.

There are signs IS is vulnerable amid rivalries, clashes, and power grabs

This need not get in the way, though, of reaching out to Sunni tribal leaders in Syria and Iraq to persuade them their future lies not with trying to win power on the back of IS and then turning against it.

Rather that it lies in turning against IS now and quickly ending an even more drawn out conflict.

They will need bribing with money and guns - which Arab states will be expected to come up with.

There are signs that IS is already vulnerable.

Former members of Saddam Hussein's armed forces who are inside IS are already showing signs they want more power, according to intelligence sources.

Meanwhile, the IS leadership for much of Iraq has been switched to Syria, and vice versa, to offset frictions between rival groups.

And inside Syria, sources say, several IS 'emirs' have clashed with local tribal chieftains who despise all outside attempts to rule over them, but would welcome support from fellow Arab Sunni governments.

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UK To Send Machine Guns And Ammo To Iraq

Britain is sending £1.6m of military kit, including heavy machine guns, to Iraq to help fight Islamic State militants.

Announcing the decision in a written statement, Michael Fallon, the Secretary of State for Defence, said the equipment would be used for "alleviating the humanitarian suffering of those Iraqis" targeted by IS terrorists, also known as ISIL and ISIS.

Mr Fallon said the move followed a request from the Iraq government and would include the Kurdish regional government.

"The Kurdish forces remain significantly less well equipped than ISIL and we are responding to help them defend themselves, protect citizens and push back ISIL advances," he said.

PKK fighters in Turkey last year

However, there have been concerns that the weaponry could end up in the hands of the paramilitary group the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has fought a 30-year insurgency in neighbouring Turkey in an attempt to establish a separate Kurdish state.

The PKK is on the UK Government's proscribed list and is also considered a terrorist organisation by the US, the European Union and Nato.

Turkey's foreign minister, Mevlut Cvusolglu, said: "The weapons sent (to Iraq) should not end up in the hands of terrorist organisations. They should not end up in the hands of the PKK."

He added that Turkey had voiced its concerns during the Nato summit in Wales last week and said: "It may not be possible to control where these weapons will go."

The decades-long insurgency in the southeast of Turkey has cost 40,000 lives. 

Iraq's new Prime Minister Haider al Abadi

There had been speculation Britain could join US-led airstrikes against IS fighters in Iraq, however, David Cameron has promised a House of Commons vote before direct military intervention.

On Monday Barack Obama held talks with Iraq's new Prime Minister Haider al Abadi to discuss the fight against Islamic State militants.

Iraq's parliament has now officially named Mr al Abadi as the country's Prime Minister and approved most of his proposed candidates for cabinet roles, including members of the country's minority Sunni and Kurdish communities.

The West has been pushing Iraq for a more representative government that will ease anger among Sunnis who felt marginalised by former prime minister Nouri al Maliki and his administration.

The anger among Sunnis has helped to fuel the seizure of territory by the IS across much of north and western Iraq since June.

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Ukraine Conflict 'Impossible' To Win Militarily

By Katie Stallard, Moscow Correspondent

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has told Sky News the conflict in his country cannot be solved by military means alone.

Speaking in the southern city of Mariupol, close to the frontline between his forces and pro-Russian rebels, he said foreign troops must be withdrawn for peace to be achieved.

"We should understand that it is impossible to win the conflict only by military means," he said.

"The more we increase the pressure, the more Russian troops come into our territory.

"If you ask me the quickest way to make stability and peace here it's very simple: withdraw foreign troops and close the border."

Mr Poroshenko speaks in the port city of Mariupol

The president met activists and civil defence volunteers during a surprise visit to Mariupol, leading workers at the city's vast metal factory in a rendition of the national anthem.

"This city was, is, and will be Ukrainian," Mr Poroshenko told the crowd, from a stage decorated with the blue and yellow colours of his country's flag.

"Mariupol proved that we won't let anybody burn our city to the ground. This workers' Mariupol protected peace and calm in the city."

He called Mariupol a "hero city", evoking the title given to Soviet cities such as Leningrad and Stalingrad after the Second World War.

A ceasefire which came into force on Friday appeared to be largely holding, despite shelling on the eastern outskirts of Mariupol overnight on both Saturday and Sunday.

A Ukrainian serviceman rides on an armoured vehicle in Kramatorsk

Mr Poroshenko denied that the ceasefire deal meant effectively ceding control of large areas in the east of his country.

"In all the documents we signed, it was especially mentioned that the question of territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of my country is not a matter of negotiation," he said.

Colonel Andriy Lysenko, Ukraine's National Security Council spokesman, said rebel forces had stopped using heavy artillery and were only using mortar and rifle fire.

He said no servicemen had been killed in the past 24 hours.

"That's a big achievement," he said.

The Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported that 15 Ukrainian soldiers had been released by rebel forces, as part of a prisoner exchange.

Mr Lysenko said the exchange of prisoners was "task number one" for the government during the ceasefire.

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Report Into Downing Of MH17 Set For Release

Dutch authorities are expected to publish a preliminary report into the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 later.

The Netherlands is co-ordinating criminal investigations into the July 17 disaster by multiple countries, including Ukraine, Malaysia, Australia and Belgium.

The report will set out what is believed to have happened, but will not apportion blame.

All 298 passengers and crew on board the plane were killed when the aircraft, which was flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur over an area in eastern Ukraine controlled by pro-Russian separatists.

Newcastle fans Liam Sweeney and John Alder were among the victims

The rebels in Ukraine have publicly denied responsibility for shooting down the aircraft.

Only 193 of those on board have been positively identified, including Newcastle United fans Liam Sweeney, 28, and John Alder, 63, who were travelling to New Zealand to watch their team play.

Forensic teams are still trying to identify remains found in the wreckage of the aircraft.

Most of those on board were Dutch, but there were also people from Canada, Germany, Indonesia, New Zealand, the Philippines and the UK.

Rebels in Ukraine prevented medical personnel from recovering the bodies of victims as fighting erupted with Ukrainian forces.

The crash occurred just months after the still-unexplained disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

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Residents Fearful Amid Fragile Ukraine Truce

Deep Divisions Amid Fragile Ukraine Peace

Updated: 12:27pm UK, Saturday 06 September 2014

By Katie Stallard, Moscow Correspondent in Mariupol

Ceasefire is a temporary state. It's not the same as lasting peace.

What has been agreed so far is a halt in the bloodshed - the reasons people took up arms in the first place have so far not been addressed.

The Ukrainian President sounds optimistic - a prisoner exchange could begin as soon as this weekend, a second Russian aid convoy could be allowed in.

The self-proclaimed prime minister of the separatist Luhansk People's Republic is less encouraging.

He said the status of the people's republics had not been discussed, and the ceasefire should not be taken to mean they had abandoned their plans to separate from Ukraine.

The commander of one of the pro-Ukrainian battalions outside Mariupol said they would use the time to regroup and retrain.

The divisions run deep, and not just among the militia.

Plenty of people in the east did not support the winter revolution - from their perspective what they saw was their democratically elected president overthrown, and a government now in Kiev they believe seized power in a coup d'etat.

Some want more regional autonomy, others want their region to secede and join Russia.

On the other side are the pro-Ukrainians who fought for the future of their country on the Maidan, some of whom have now joined volunteer battalions in the east.

They have already seen part of their country annexed by President Vladimir Putin, and believe the Russian army is fighting on the side of the rebels, intervening in their sovereign state.

They want their country to be united, to be allowed to move towards the European Union, and they want their land back.

Militarily we're back to relative stalemate - that in itself is quite a reversal of fortunes.

A couple of weeks ago it seemed the Ukrainian army was in the ascendant - the rebels seemed to be on the backfoot, retreating and largely restricted to the centres of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Over the course of the last fortnight, the rebels have had a sudden and mysterious resurgence - opening a new front in the south threatening the strategic port city of Mariupol, and simultaneously taking villages and towns to the east of the regional capital Donetsk.

Now it's the Ukrainian army losing ground, and the overall balance is roughly back to where it was.

Kiev says that's because Russia is sending troops and equipment across the border - not in sufficient quantities to look like an overt invasion and force the west to act, but enough to stop the rebels from being defeated.

The Kremlin insists any Russian soldiers in Ukraine are either on holiday or lost.

A return to stalemate would quite suit President Putin.

He doesn't necessarily need the rebels to win, and he doesn't seem to want to occupy, and have to defend, eastern Ukraine.

A frozen conflict, that could be thawed as and when necessary, could be just fine.

In terms of domestic Russian politics, President Putin doesn't want the Maidan revolution to be followed by success - his administration has long feared a colour revolution, in the manner of Ukraine or Georgia, fomenting outside the Kremlin walls in Moscow.

Much better that that revolution is synonymous in Russian minds with violence and chaos.

Russian state TV is pushing that narrative heavily at home.

In terms of broader geopolitics, the Kremlin doesn't want a united Ukraine leaving its sphere of influence to join the EU, and maybe one day Nato.

They don't want to find Nato bases on their western border in five years' time.

Keeping a level of control of the east, and an insurgency that has not been defeated, could give Moscow just the leverage it needs.

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Fresh Fighting Threatens Ukraine Ceasefire

Residents Fearful Amid Fragile Ukraine Truce

Updated: 12:15pm UK, Sunday 07 September 2014

By Katie Stallard, Moscow Correspondent, in Mariupol

On the outskirts of Mariupol you could see the remains of Ukrainian artillery still smouldering.

We saw them recovering another piece that had been abandoned in a field.

In the middle of the main road, east outside the city, there is a Ukrainian army tank.

It has ended up disabled in what were meant to be its own side's defences - a tank trap incongruously painted with anti-war slogans and doves of peace.

The force of the impact had flung the barrel right round and destroyed part of a huge concrete block.

On one side of the tank the crew had written "Glory" and "Death to the enemies!" On the other it said "To Moscow!"

Further up the road we found the new rebel front line - they've advanced about 15 kilometres west in three days.

They turned us around and told us to leave.

We saw a T-80 battle tank dug in to the corner of the field behind them.

The pro-Russian rebels are now just a few hundred metres outside the village of Shyrokyne.

We found Ukrainian positions above the village unmanned, the hills leading up to them pockmarked with the impact of artillery fire.

One shell had landed just outside a church - its windows were shattered by shrapnel.

Another had hit a house nearby.

Tamara Spitsa, a retired music teacher, told Sky News she had never imagined this could happen in her village.

"We were hiding in the bathroom with my husband when they started shooting, very loud explosions, shrapnel like this hit my house and broke the roof."

Another man, who gave his name as Andrei, said there was no electricity in the village now.

"Scared is not the right word," he said of his feelings during the shelling.

"[President] Poroshenko should sit right here in the cellar with Litsenko [the Ukrainian Security Council spokesman] - they should be right here and then ask them if they're scared or not?

"Everyone was hiding in their cellars."

In the next village a mortar landed in front of the school, showering the canteen with fragments.

The force sliced branches off trees in the playground.

A woman was killed nearby by a mortar outside her house. She had worked selling vegetables in the market.

Her neighbour, Viktor, blamed the Ukrainian side for firing from outside their village.

"Two Grad rockets came this way," he said, "They started shooting on the rebels' positions on the outskirts.

"As a result they started answering and here is the result - we have people who are dead and injured."

We saw them digging fresh graves in the village cemetery - they want to lay the dead to rest while the ceasefire lasts.

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Residents Fearful Amid Fragile Ukraine Truce

Deep Divisions Amid Fragile Ukraine Peace

Updated: 12:27pm UK, Saturday 06 September 2014

By Katie Stallard, Moscow Correspondent in Mariupol

Ceasefire is a temporary state. It's not the same as lasting peace.

What has been agreed so far is a halt in the bloodshed - the reasons people took up arms in the first place have so far not been addressed.

The Ukrainian President sounds optimistic - a prisoner exchange could begin as soon as this weekend, a second Russian aid convoy could be allowed in.

The self-proclaimed prime minister of the separatist Luhansk People's Republic is less encouraging.

He said the status of the people's republics had not been discussed, and the ceasefire should not be taken to mean they had abandoned their plans to separate from Ukraine.

The commander of one of the pro-Ukrainian battalions outside Mariupol said they would use the time to regroup and retrain.

The divisions run deep, and not just among the militia.

Plenty of people in the east did not support the winter revolution - from their perspective what they saw was their democratically elected president overthrown, and a government now in Kiev they believe seized power in a coup d'etat.

Some want more regional autonomy, others want their region to secede and join Russia.

On the other side are the pro-Ukrainians who fought for the future of their country on the Maidan, some of whom have now joined volunteer battalions in the east.

They have already seen part of their country annexed by President Vladimir Putin, and believe the Russian army is fighting on the side of the rebels, intervening in their sovereign state.

They want their country to be united, to be allowed to move towards the European Union, and they want their land back.

Militarily we're back to relative stalemate - that in itself is quite a reversal of fortunes.

A couple of weeks ago it seemed the Ukrainian army was in the ascendant - the rebels seemed to be on the backfoot, retreating and largely restricted to the centres of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Over the course of the last fortnight, the rebels have had a sudden and mysterious resurgence - opening a new front in the south threatening the strategic port city of Mariupol, and simultaneously taking villages and towns to the east of the regional capital Donetsk.

Now it's the Ukrainian army losing ground, and the overall balance is roughly back to where it was.

Kiev says that's because Russia is sending troops and equipment across the border - not in sufficient quantities to look like an overt invasion and force the west to act, but enough to stop the rebels from being defeated.

The Kremlin insists any Russian soldiers in Ukraine are either on holiday or lost.

A return to stalemate would quite suit President Putin.

He doesn't necessarily need the rebels to win, and he doesn't seem to want to occupy, and have to defend, eastern Ukraine.

A frozen conflict, that could be thawed as and when necessary, could be just fine.

In terms of domestic Russian politics, President Putin doesn't want the Maidan revolution to be followed by success - his administration has long feared a colour revolution, in the manner of Ukraine or Georgia, fomenting outside the Kremlin walls in Moscow.

Much better that that revolution is synonymous in Russian minds with violence and chaos.

Russian state TV is pushing that narrative heavily at home.

In terms of broader geopolitics, the Kremlin doesn't want a united Ukraine leaving its sphere of influence to join the EU, and maybe one day Nato.

They don't want to find Nato bases on their western border in five years' time.

Keeping a level of control of the east, and an insurgency that has not been defeated, could give Moscow just the leverage it needs.

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Ukraine Skirmishes Despite Ceasefire Deal

Deep Divisions Amid Fragile Ukraine Peace

Updated: 12:27pm UK, Saturday 06 September 2014

By Katie Stallard, Moscow Correspondent in Mariupol

Ceasefire is a temporary state. It's not the same as lasting peace.

What has been agreed so far is a halt in the bloodshed - the reasons people took up arms in the first place have so far not been addressed.

The Ukrainian President sounds optimistic - a prisoner exchange could begin as soon as this weekend, a second Russian aid convoy could be allowed in.

The self-proclaimed prime minister of the separatist Luhansk People's Republic is less encouraging.

He said the status of the people's republics had not been discussed, and the ceasefire should not be taken to mean they had abandoned their plans to separate from Ukraine.

The commander of one of the pro-Ukrainian battalions outside Mariupol said they would use the time to regroup and retrain.

The divisions run deep, and not just among the militia.

Plenty of people in the east did not support the winter revolution - from their perspective what they saw was their democratically elected president overthrown, and a government now in Kiev they believe seized power in a coup d'etat.

Some want more regional autonomy, others want their region to secede and join Russia.

On the other side are the pro-Ukrainians who fought for the future of their country on the Maidan, some of whom have now joined volunteer battalions in the east.

They have already seen part of their country annexed by President Vladimir Putin, and believe the Russian army is fighting on the side of the rebels, intervening in their sovereign state.

They want their country to be united, to be allowed to move towards the European Union, and they want their land back.

Militarily we're back to relative stalemate - that in itself is quite a reversal of fortunes.

A couple of weeks ago it seemed the Ukrainian army was in the ascendant - the rebels seemed to be on the backfoot, retreating and largely restricted to the centres of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Over the course of the last fortnight, the rebels have had a sudden and mysterious resurgence - opening a new front in the south threatening the strategic port city of Mariupol, and simultaneously taking villages and towns to the east of the regional capital Donetsk.

Now it's the Ukrainian army losing ground, and the overall balance is roughly back to where it was.

Kiev says that's because Russia is sending troops and equipment across the border - not in sufficient quantities to look like an overt invasion and force the west to act, but enough to stop the rebels from being defeated.

The Kremlin insists any Russian soldiers in Ukraine are either on holiday or lost.

A return to stalemate would quite suit President Putin.

He doesn't necessarily need the rebels to win, and he doesn't seem to want to occupy, and have to defend, eastern Ukraine.

A frozen conflict, that could be thawed as and when necessary, could be just fine.

In terms of domestic Russian politics, President Putin doesn't want the Maidan revolution to be followed by success - his administration has long feared a colour revolution, in the manner of Ukraine or Georgia, fomenting outside the Kremlin walls in Moscow.

Much better that that revolution is synonymous in Russian minds with violence and chaos.

Russian state TV is pushing that narrative heavily at home.

In terms of broader geopolitics, the Kremlin doesn't want a united Ukraine leaving its sphere of influence to join the EU, and maybe one day Nato.

They don't want to find Nato bases on their western border in five years' time.

Keeping a level of control of the east, and an insurgency that has not been defeated, could give Moscow just the leverage it needs.

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