A Complex Web Of Friends And Enemies
Updated: 10:16am UK, Sunday 13 July 2014
By Sam Kiley, Foreign Affairs Editor
Rockets fired from Lebanon into Israel at dawn. The opening of a new front for Israel already engaged in an escalating air campaign in the Gaza Strip? No.
Neither the Israelis nor Hezbollah, which has an arsenal of 100,000 rockets and controls southern Lebanon, are that stupid.
The missile attack on Israel's north was an attempt by Sunni militants to spark a confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel that both know would be a zero sum.
Why would Sunnis, in all probability descendants of Palestinian refugees from what is now Israel, want to do that?
It's Hezbollah, a Shia movement, after all, that has been a major conduit of experts, funding and modern rockets to Hamas, a Sunni organisation, in Gaza. Hamas and Hezbollah are allies.
But only when it comes to fighting Israel.
In Syria, Hamas has condemned the Assad regime, which like Hezbollah is backed by Iran.
Sunnis of Palestinian descent are among volunteers who have joined rebel groups fighting Damascus, while Hezbollah has sent thousands of its best fighters to the frontlines to defend the regime of Bashar al Assad.
There is a logic at work here.
If Sunni groups in south Lebanon can sucker the Israelis into a war with Hezbollah they could enjoy the double whammy of reduced pressure on Gaza, and the use of Israel's devastating air power against Hezbollah, the Sunnis' enemies in Syria.
No better example of an attempt to kill two birds with one stone.
It won't happen because both Hezbollah and Israel, foes who have the greatest respect for one another, saw through the plot some time back. It's not the first time it has been tried.
But it does signal just how the Middle East's tectonic plates of conflict have shifted and can overlap.
The explosion of sectarian Muslim war between Sunni and Shia in Syria, which has spread into Iraq and has destabilised Lebanon, has become the defining clash in a new age of chaos.
Rival regional powers Saudi Arabia and Iran use proxies to vie for influence and control.
The Saudis have become increasingly nervous of the spread of a Shia crescent from Tehran through Baghdad to Damascus and south Lebanon.
But Tehran has also used enemy forces to bolster the positions of its allies.
According to intelligence sources Muhsin al Fadhli, once a senior al Qaeda figure based in Iraq, has taken up an operational role inside Syria - at the instigation of the Iranian government.
Why would Tehran release someone to fight a key client and ally in Damascus?
Because radical groups like the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have fought harder against fellow rebel groups than they have against the Assad regime.
Tehran has split the rebels.
But now ISIS threatens Iran's client government in Baghdad showing that an enemy's enemy may be a friend from time to time, but will remain an enemy.
This may be complicated, but there is no excuse for stupidity in the Middle East. Failure to comprehend this can be fatal.
Anda sedang membaca artikel tentang
Middle East: Old Formula For Peace Will Not Work
Dengan url
http://mukenyerate.blogspot.com/2014/07/middle-east-old-formula-for-peace-will.html
Anda boleh menyebar luaskannya atau mengcopy paste-nya
Middle East: Old Formula For Peace Will Not Work
namun jangan lupa untuk meletakkan link
Middle East: Old Formula For Peace Will Not Work
sebagai sumbernya
0 komentar:
Posting Komentar