Could Al Shabaab Launch UK Attack?
Updated: 2:10pm UK, Tuesday 24 September 2013
By Tim Marshall, Foreign Affairs Editor
The UK's intelligence services have been following the trickle of British-based men heading for the al Shabaab group in Somalia for "many years".
It is of obvious concern to them but not a priority and the possibility of the group carrying out a major attack in the UK is thought to be unlikely.
However, the current link between the group and al Qaeda is concentrating minds.
A Whitehall source tells Sky News that "There's actually fewer men going to Somalia to join Shabaab now because the Syrian conflict has attracted a lot more attention for would be jihadists".
Nevertheless, the security services will be checking their records of people in the UK with a connection to al Shabaab and it's likely the Kenyan authorities have asked for any information which may be of help. What London can tell Nairobi is that over the past decade tens of men have gone to Somalia on al Shabaab-related activities and that "most of them stay there".
The authorities in Britain cannot rule out an al Shabaab attack in the UK but it is a scenario considered unlikely.
Given limited time and resources they cannot target the al Shabaab threat as a priority, the core al Qaeda affiliates are still considered a bigger problem along with the rumblings of increased extremist activity in Northern Ireland.
One source told Sky News: "The al Shabaab threat is most acute in Somalia. A secondary threat is in the East African region. There's always a threat of copycat attacks here, and could al Shabaab mount a UK attack? It's possible, but it's not their focus, and besides they are under a lot of pressure in East Africa right now."
What has attracted attention is the al Qaeda-style attack in Nairobi. This summer al Shabaab's top leader Abu Zubayr, also known as Ahmad Abdi Godane, moved against some of his lieutenants who controlled factions within the group. Several of these have subsequently been killed.
Godane then swore loyalty to the al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri and is thought to have been in contact with him. This will have pleased those in the al Shabaab ranks who, along with Godane, have a more international jihadi outlook and do not just want to concentrate on Somalia.
So while an al Shabaab attack in the UK is thought to be unlikely, the pressure on it to build on its now global brand with an attack even further from its base is something the security authorities will be looking at.
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